Water Issues for 2025: A Research Perspective

A summary of IWMI's research contribution to the Vision process. Topics include: global water scarcity, the productivity of water, water storage, groundwater, and poverty, gender and water.

The Global Groundwater Situation: Overview of Opportunities & Challenges

This document clarifies the issues surrounding groundwater management and the consequences of overexploitation of this resource. Explores potential strategies for averting a groundwater crisis. 79kb

From bucket to basin: Managing River Basins to Alleviate Water Deprivation

IWMI's research and policy recommendations on poverty and gender. Outlines the issues and interconnections between poverty, gender and water and identifies opportunities for improved pro-poor, gender-inclusive management of water resources. 106kb

A Global Perspective on Water Scarcity / Poverty: Achievements and Challenges for Water Resource Management

This document explores the impact of groundwater and irrigation development on poverty, the effects of growing water scarcity on the world’s poor, and the implications for poverty alleviation efforts in the future. 141kb

IWMI’s contributions cover five areas:

• Global Water Scarcity Study—Water Supply and Demand: 1995 - 2025

  Forcasts water supply and demand for 118 countries through 2025. Defines the geographic, social and economic dimensions of the world’s water scarcity problem and pinpoints possible solutions.

• Increasing the Productivity of Water through Improved Water Management

  Identifies techniques and strategies for maximizing the water used in agriculture.

• Water Scarcity and the Role of Storage in Development

  Discusses various options for water storage, ranging from small facilities to groundwater to large facilities. In most cases, IWMI believes that the need for additional storage can be addressed productively by innovative combinations of small, medium and large facilities.

• The Global Ground Water Situation: Overview of Opportunities and Challenges

  Outlines the consequences of groundwater mismanagement and the opportunities offered through responsible use of this resource. Identifies points for action.

• Poverty, Gender & Water

  Explores the links between poverty and water deprivation, with a particular focus on the impacts on poor women. Advocates the importance of giving women access to water for income generating activities like irrigated farming, as well as domestic purposes.

Some of these contributions are original strategic research initiated by IWMI scientists (water scarcity). For others, we assess the situation as a starting point for more in-depth scientific analyses, leading to recommendations (groundwater, water storage, gender). Still others are the result of work completed as a part of the IWMI science program, and have grown into tools and knowledge that are being transferred to developing countries ( increasing water productivity). top of the page

New research thinking supports international water policy

Over the past five years, the science program of the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) has generated new research thinking on water management and its relationship to poverty and food security in developing countries. Some of these concepts are included in the World Water Commission’s, Vision of Water for Food and Rural Development, which is published as input to the World Water Forum and inter-ministerial conference in held in The Hague, in March 2000.

The report is one part of the Commission's comprehensive Long Term Vision on Water, Life and the Environment in the 21^st century. The Vision is an assessment of the world water situation. It is also a call to action, which aims to mobilize governments and other actors in society, to ensure the sustainable management of water resources for the benefit of all people.

Over the past year, IWMI scientists have been active partners in the international team of water specialists – composed of research institutes, universities and international organizations – that have elaborated the Water for Food vision.

IWMI’s contribution addresses five themes that will be central to the question of water, poverty and food security in the coming 25 years. They are: global water scarcity; understanding and increasing the productivity of water in irrigated agriculture; water storage options; the groundwater situation and potential strategies for developing countries; and questions relating to gender, water and poverty. Each of these topics is a research area in IWMI’s science program.

"We are pleased to be a partner in the World Water Vision process," comments David Seckler, Director General of IWMI, and the architect of the Institute’s strategic research into water scarcity. "There is an interesting complementarity between the Vision’s goals and the work we have done on water and poverty questions over the past five years. It is good that some of these scientific results can be useful to help shape world water policy." top of the page

Defining the world’s water situation in 2025

The IWMI global water scarcity study, launched in 1997, presents water supply-and-demand scenarios for 118 countries. It gives a vision of the world water scarcity and food security situation in 2025, based on country data from the Food and Agriculture Organization and other sources.

Upali Amerasinghe, a scientist on the IWMI water scarcity research team, summarizes the Institute’s vision of water scarcity in 2025. "Our basic scenario for water scarcity and food security projects that, for the world to feed itself in 25 years, irrigated agriculture will require 17% more water supply. The 17% Scenario is considered by IWMI researchers to be the most realistic view, given the many economic and social variables involved in making global forecasts of this magnitude."

An important research activity for IWMI is the creation of tools and methods that help agricultural and policy planners better understand and measure the productivity of water in irrigated agriculture. Armed with this knowledge, developing countries can see where water savings in agriculture are possible, and devise strategies for more effective water management.

Seen in the context of IWMI’s global water scarcity findings, any water savings in irrigated agriculture can be transferred to benefit other water users, such as the environmental and domestic sectors. The Institute’s work in this area, gives planners a micro-to-macro view of their water resources, from the farm, irrigation system and river basin levels. This basin-level perspective gives a clear picture of the multiple uses for water and the interactions between the different users.

Taken together, IWMI’s contributions to the World Water Vision provide new analyses that situate water management as a central issue for agricultural development and environmental concerns in poor countries. These findings will support the creation of future international water policy. They will also help identify priority areas for research where the international water and development communities can focus their resources for best results. top of the page

Water scarcity/food security: helping poor countries develop realistic scenarios

The global water scarcity study makes extensive use of the Policy Interactive Dialogue Model (PODIUM), a policy-planning tool developed by IWMI.

Podium runs on a personal computer and policy makers and scientists can learn to use it in minutes, to explore vital questions such as: Can we feed ourselves in 2025? and Do we have enough water to irrigate the crops needed to ensure future national food supply and or food security?

There are two versions of Podium, a country model and a global model. Using the country model, planners can analyze water availability and food production scenarios based on figures they enter. The global model presents a spreadsheet that organizes countries into groups, providing a global or regional picture of water scarcity.

In building the Podium country versions, IWMI scientists have worked with national and international experts to include the most accurate data possible. As country figures become available, they are discussed with national experts and entered into the global model. The global model includes 45 countries that represent the major regions of the world and over 80% of its population. A less detailed analysis of 80 other countries has also been done.

Podium is a dialogue tool because it is designed so that country policy makers can quickly prepare various water and food security scenarios, then use these outputs as the basis for discussion and planning.

Podium is now being used by several developing countries to help clarify their options and shape their water and food security policies. The next stage in refining it as a tool for vision planning in developing countries is to work with individual countries to refine the data sets. IWMI has started this process in collaboration with the International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage. Through this cooperation, Podium data for India, Pakistan, Mexico and Egypt have been refined.

IWMI scientist Charlotte de Fraiture explains how Podium supports the formulation of international water policy: "Podium is different from other models because it does not make predictions. It shows alternative visions of the future. It also shows a complete picture of a country’s future food and water trends. A Podium scenario captures the technical, social and economic interactions of a country’s water and food security situation. For example, some poor countries may want to see what the impact of grain consumption will be if their middle class grows and more people change from vegetarian food to a meat-based diet. The model helps generate any number of such visions."

Summarizing the water scarcity study’s conclusions, Seckler says that, partly due to reduced population growth rates, it will be possible to satisfy the world’s food and water requirements in 2025, at a reasonable cost and in socially and environmentally acceptable ways. But to achieve this goal, substantial changes in policies, technologies and management systems are required. "If this is done properly, 2025 could witness an era in which food and water scarcity have virtually been eliminated for everyone," he says.

He cautions, however, that some countries will need large amounts of net food imports, due to water scarcity or other reasons, but will not be able to afford them. "Unfortunately, this is likely to be the case in many of the countries of sub-Saharan Africa," Seckler concludes.

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Understanding the productivity of water in agriculture

An important part of IWMI’s input to the Vision deals with the productivity of water in agriculture. Understanding and finding ways to improve the productivity of water in agriculture is a core research activity for IWMI. The Institute has developed tools and methods to do this that are freely available to water planners in developing countries.

IWMI Research Leader, David Molden, explains why water productivity is central to thinking on food security policy, and how it also contributes to the environmental debate on the development of water resources infrastructure. "The extent to which water constrains agricultural production, and the world’s ability to feed itself, comes down to the question of the productivity of water. The more we can produce with the same amount of water, the less need there will be to develop water resources infrastructure; and the less competition there will be for water. Water accounting tools help identify ways to enhance local food security while making water available to nature, domestic and industrial users," he says.

In many agricultural areas it seems that the productivity of water could be doubled. But to do this, serious water management constraints must be overcome. "We must first understand where savings can come from," says Molden. "Real water savings and productivity gains can be achieved in several ways: through more reliable water supply to irrigated areas; using precision irrigation delivery technologies; and management systems that give feedback on the effectiveness of irrigation systems, so their performance can be measured and fine-tuned."

It is true that poor farmers can produce higher crop yields, using supplemental irrigation with low-cost precision technologies. But to achieve better irrigation performance, they must overcome a formidable, non-technical, obstacle. Molden explains: "As competition for water increases, the institutions responsible for the business of water management must change, or these kinds of practical solutions cannot be implemented," he concludes. top of the page

Water Storage: finding available water and optimal storage strategies

Increasing water storage is a practical, and in some cases the only, solution to the water scarcity crisis in many areas. The first step for most developing countries, highlights IWMI’s research, is to understand the amount of water available in river basins, especially in the water scarcity hot spots, and how much water will be needed to meet future demands..

The first step toward devising innovative storage options is to understand the scope of the problem, says IWMI scientist R. Sakthivadivel. He calls for water accounting inventories to be done on all the major river basins of the world. This water balance sheet will help planners clearly see where water is available for potential storage. "The amount of potentially usable water that is flowing out of these basins must be determined. Then plans can be made to efficiently capture and use it," he says.

IWMI’s water storage research advocates increasing the storage of freshwater through a combination of groundwater recharge and small, medium and large surface water facilities. A storage strategy is critical to meeting the water demands of the 21^st century, concludes Sakthivadivel. "Combinations of surface storage and groundwater recharge are generally the best options, where they are feasible. If storage projects are to serve their purpose with maximum efficiency, then a variety of options should be considered.," he says.

In the past, economies of scale have been the main consideration in the selection of storage type, often at unacceptable social and environmental costs. Many large dams have been built because of their low-cost per m³ of water stored, not because they were particularly appropriate in the given situation. The IWMI research indicates that combinations of big and small reservoirs along with effective aquifer management optimizes the advantages and minimizes the disadvantages of each type of storage.

"The idea of integrating different storage technologies is a concept has not been effectively put into practice from the planning stage, although it has been practiced in many areas of the world" says Sakthivadivel. With water becoming scarce, IWMI scientist believe the use of such integrated planning for conserving water could lead to higher water productivity while maintaining the ecological balance. top of the page

 Groundwater: poverty-focused research solutions

The urgency for policy makers to acknowledge the real danger that unchecked groundwater development brings – and to promote ways to better manage this resource – are highlighted in IWMI’s first Global Water Scarcity Study, published in 1998.

"In the emerging picture of water scarcity, managing groundwater intelligently will be an important challenge facing water sector practitioners and policy makers in many parts of the world," explains IWMI Research Leader, Tushaar Shah, a scientist with two decades’ experience analyzing Asian groundwater questions.

As its contribution to the special groundwater session of the World Water Forum, IWMI is presenting recent findings on the state of groundwater use and depletion in South Asia. This data is a part of the Institute’s groundwater research initiative.

"Compared to surface irrigation, managing groundwater is a different and far more complex affair," Shah explains. IWMI’s groundwater research takes a poverty-focused and pluralistic approach. In groundwater abundant areas, IWMI scientists are exploring how communities and villages can organize themselves to better manage and share water for irrigation. In areas suffering from groundwater over-exploitation, IWMI’s work focuses on developing new approaches to the problem. These include combined use of ground and surface waters, rain water harvesting, groundwater recharge, local institutions, and the use of precision irrigation for more efficient water use.

Three problems dominate groundwater use. Depletion due to overdraft; waterlogging and salinization caused by insufficient drainage; and pollution, due to intensive agricultural, industrial and other human activity. "Particularly in regions with a high population density, heavy tubewell-irrigated agriculture and insufficient surface water, a myriad consequences of groundwater over-development is surfacing."

Declining water tables are the most common symptom. In North China’s vast 2 million hectare Henan province, some 52% of irrigated lands are served by tubewells. Water table monitoring data on 358 wells, covering 75000 km², shows water table declines of 0.75-3.68 meters between during 1975-1987. In the Changzhou prefecture of China’s Hebei province, 76,800 wells irrigate 37% of the irrigated area. Here, the area covered by saline water increased by 9.1% between 1980 and 1990.

In the Fuyang river basin of North China, where IWMI has been studying basin institutions, surface water supplies to agriculture have been drastically curtailed over a 20-year period to meet industrial needs. Farmers have responded by resorting to groundwater irrigation, increasing the number of tubewells to some 91,000. The water table has fallen from 8 to 50 meters depth in the past 30 years. "Aquifers in this basin are under double assault," comments Shah,"Farmers are depleting the lower aquifers while industry pollutes the upper ones."

South Asia’s, groundwater problems are at least as acute. In western, northwestern and peninsular India and Pakistan, the number of irrigation wells in use has grown by one million per year, in recent years. This practice has tipped the groundwater balance, so that withdrawal exceeds annual recharge across vast geographic areas, a phenomenon, which is growing annually.

"South Asia’s decrease in useable groundwater has been rapid, and the consequences are serious and visible," says Shah. In the two Punjabs, Haryana and Western Rajasthan, salinity is the main consequence of groundwater over-use. In North Gujarat and Southern Rajasthan, the problem is fluoride contamination. In hard-rock Southern India, the never-ending competition for water declining well-yields and increased pumping costs are drive up by the continual deepening of wells, in the never-ending competition for water. West Bengal and western Bangladesh suffer from arsenic contamination in their groundwater, and in coastal areas, intensified pumping of groundwater for irrigation causes salt to creep into fresh water aquifers.

All these problems will impair the region’s capacity to feed its people, which has one of the fastest-growing populations on the planet. IWMI’s Director General, David Seckler, says that groundwater depletion may well put 25% of India’s harvest at risk.

"In some of the most populous and poverty-stricken regions of the world—particularly in South Asia—groundwater has emerged as the mainstay of the food-agricultural economy. In India, for example, over 60% of the irrigated food grain production now depends on groundwater wells. Between India, China, the US and Pakistan, some 325 km³ of groundwater is used every year. For the world as a whole, groundwater use may be some 750-800 km^3." However the actual amount of groundwater depletion is not known. IWMI is conducting research to create a better understanding of this important question.

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The gender, poverty and water link

The World Water Vision’s Gender and Mainstreaming Project refers to some IWMI concepts in its final report. The Institute’s work on gender and water issues has been in progress since the early 1990s, and is helping organize the Gender Day work at the World Water Forum in The Hague.

Barbara van Koppen, who leads the IWMI gender research project, explains the Institute’s contribution to policy thinking on gender and poverty in water management over the past three years. "Our research looks at how integrated water management policies can strengthen poor women’s and men’s access to water, for irrigation and other domestic or economic uses," she says. This perspective shows why better water access is the key to better gender equity, and increased well being for poor people across the developing world. The easier access that poor people have to a water source, the better chance they will have to maintain stable health, a liveable income and freedom from the exhausting daily routine of fetching and carrying water.

"But water has seldom been a free good for women," says van Koppen. "More than one billion poor people are deprived of access to water of sufficient quality and in adequate quantities to meet even minimum levels of health, income, and freedom from drudgery. Poor women disproportionately bear the burden of the unpaid chore of fetching water for domestic use, while they are excluded from many opportunities to create wealth with water," she explains.

Poor men and women’s access to water is particularly endangered in situations of scarcity. When there is competition for water, poor people often lose out to those who can afford more powerful machinery for extracting water or those who have more political influence. This can be seen throughout South Asia, where owners of more expensive pumps and deeper-boring wells were able to continue pumping groundwater, despite rapidly depleting aquifers, leaving the hand pumps and shallow irrigation pumps of the poor high and dry.

As an important part of the solution to this increasingly wide-spread problem, van Koppen advocates the creation of a basin-level "water reserve" to meet the needs of poor men and women. "Poor people should not be the ones who are forced to conserve water; they use little enough water at it is," says van Koppen. "Instead water should be allocated to ensure all their needs are met. The responsibility for water savings should fall on the larger, wealthier water users."

Van Koppen emphasizes that access to drinking water is not enough. Poor people need water for a range of activities: from domestic uses to farming to other water-dependent businesses. From the economic perspective, water deprivation refers to the extent to which society denies poor people of the opportunity to create wealth with water. They may directly use water for self-employment or benefit indirectly in the case of wage employment in water-related businesses.

Many rural income sources for the poorest of the poor depend on access to water. These include small landholders and landless people that fish or raise livestock. Fishing for family food consumption provides a major source of protein for poor households and incomes for small artisan fishermen and women. Water is also a vital component of various small industries and crafts where the poor are active, such as brick- or pottery making and brewing.

Women’s lack of access to water for income generation is a major concern of the IWMI gender project. "In the past," says Van Koppen, "people have focused on women’s access to water for drinking, washing and other domestic purposes. While this is certainly a vital need, women’s other water needs should be considered as well."

Rights to irrigation water are a pressing need for poor women throughout the developing world. Many farm their own plots, either as the sole supporters of their families or as important supplements to their husband’s incomes. Irrigation agencies have often overlooked the needs of these women farmers. "Some irrigation ‘improvement’ projects have even taken away the access that women did have," reports van Koppen. "There are a few examples of projects that have successfully included women, and these need to publicized for wider replication."

In the gender area, as with other aspects of water, agriculture and poverty, the looming threat of water scarcity will have its first and hardest impact on the poorest women and men in developing countries. To address this potential crisis, IWMI’s gender research is watching developments in various countries to see how they are reshaping their institutions to be more inclusive to the poorest members of society.

IWMI is currently cooperating with the South African government, to support the implementation of this country’s new water law. This is currently the world’s most progressive pro-poor and gender-inclusive water legislation. This experience provides valuable lessons for other developing countries.

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IWMI is grateful to the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) for providing funding from the World Bank and other donors for the Global Water Scarcity research.

Other Publications

Considerations in Formulating the Transfer of Services in the Water Sector
This paper reports work that is somewhat unusual for IWMI, in the sense that, although based on research carried out by the authors in six countries, it really reflects the wisdom and experience of two senior practitioners. They have used the data collected, plus their knowledge about other international experiences, to argue that if a country plans to implement an irrigation management transfer policy, it should be based on a comprehensive and well-planned approach.
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