| Some
factors outside the water sector, and out of the control
of water managers or users, are nevertheless likely
to have a major influence on the water-food-environment
nexus.We call these factors “drivers”.
The three key drivers we see are: population growth
and economic development;world trade negotiations
related to agriculture; and climate change.
|
1. |
Population
growth and economic development, with a fixed
resource base, is the key driver of increasing
water scarcity in Africa and Asia. |
| |
i.
|
Increases
in the world population in coming decades, concentrated
in the developing countries where water is already
scarce,will significantly exacerbate the current
water crisis in a business as usual scenario,
increasing the need for action.
|
A crowded slum area
has grown in Addis Ababa in Ethiopia
Photograph by Frank Rijsberman, IWMI
|
ii.
|
The current rapid economic
growth in Asia leads to a more water-intensive
lifestyle, for example through changing diets
such as increased meat consumption.
|
|
|
|
| Food
Item |
Water
requirement
m3/kg (avg.) |
Beef
(grain fed)
Lamb
Poultry
Cereals
Cirtrus fruits
Palm oil
Pulses, roots and tubers
|
|
| |
15
or more
10
6
0.43
1
2
1 |
|
|
World's Average Cereal Yield and Cereal
Area
Source: IWMI |
Table showing the water
requirement in m3/kg (avg.) for various
food items highlights that meat items
require greater amounts of water compared
to other food items.
Source: SIWI based on several sources
|
| |
|
|
Crop productivity of Cereals 1980 - 2002
Source: IWMI |
Graph above shows the
increase in meat consumption over a time
period for the world and for different
regions.
Source: Comprehensive Assessment (CA)
|
|
|
| 2. |
The
world trade negotiations are expected to have
a very significant impact on the demand for
water resources to grow food and fiber. |
| |
i.
|
The
world trading patterns in food and fiber products
are greatly affected by the agricultural subsidies
and tariffs that are currently the subject of
intense WTO negotiation.
|
ii.
|
If the WTO
negotiations have the effect desired by developing
countries, i.e. greater access to the markets
of OECD countries for their agricultural products,
then the additional water required to grow these
products in developing countries presuming the
more stringent export food quality criteria
can be met - is potentially very large.
|
| |
|
| |
3.
|
Climate
change will increase climate variability while
the capacity to deal even with the current climate
variability is very low.
|
|
|
| i. |
Climate change
is expected to increase climatic variability.
Adapting to these changes will require adequate
storage infrastructure and delivery systems
for water resources.
|
| ii. |
Adapting to
current climate variability will prepare us
for future changes. Due to the difficulty in
obtaining localized forecasts of the impacts
of climate change, it is not prudent to wait
for accurate predictions as the basis for action.
|
|
|
